Providing the analytics Behind Vaccine Decisions
Recent changes to the U.S. childhood vaccine schedule have left states, payers, and families facing critical decisions without the quantitative evidence that has historically guided vaccine policy. Modeling was not used to inform these unprecedented schedule changes, leaving decision-makers without the cost-benefit and health outcome projections they need.
Our team is filling that gap. Emory leads two large academic modeling consortia (CIDMATH and CAMP) with over a decade of experience providing actionable data to public health decision-makers. We are now conducting independent modeling amid a rapidly shifting vaccine landscape. Our recent analysis of potential impacts of changing the Hepatitis B birth dose recommendation (Hall et al., 2025) ranked in the top 1% of scientific literature for breadth of dissemination and was widely used across sectors.
We work for the people making decisions. Our modeling serves regional coalitions, states, and payers—grounded in programmatic needs and aligned with policy realities. We have a track record with federal agencies, state health departments, patient advocacy organizations, and clinical associations, and our communications team translates complex findings for diverse audiences.
Keywords:
Mathematical modeling, Vaccine impact, Vaccine evaluation, Economic analysis, Vaccine policy
Core faculty:
Ben Lopman, Heather Bradley, Eric Hall, Kristin Nelson
RECENT PROJECTS
VaxImpactMap uses epidemiological models and state-level data to project the additional disease cases, hospitalizations, deaths, missed workdays, and health care costs that would occur at different levels of declining vaccination coverage.
Three major vaccine-preventable childhood diseases—rotavirus (diarrheal disease), pertussis (whooping cough), and pneumococcal disease (serious bacterial infection)—were featured on VaxImpactMap’s initial launch.
Affiliated Faculty:
Ben Lopman PhD, Kristin Nelson PhD
Collaborators:
Emory University
This work was widely used across multiple sectors and ranked in the top 1% of scientific literature for breadth of dissemination. We have also created interactive state-level maps that visualize the likely health and economic impacts of reduced childhood vaccine coverage.
Affiliated Faculty:
Heather Bradley PhD, Eric Hall PhD
Selected Publications:
- Eric W. Hall, Prabhu Gounder, Heather Bradley, Noele P. Nelson. Economic evaluation of delaying the infant hepatitis B vaccination schedule.
This project uses data collected from the 8-site prospective birth cohort study, MAL-ED to estimate the potential impact of enteric vaccines on reducing antibiotic use and exposure of bacterial pathogens to antibiotics. This work expands the value proposition for enteric vaccines currently in development.
Funder:
Wellcome Trust Foundation
Affiliated Faculty:
Liz McQuade, PhD
Collaborators:
James Platts-Mills (University of Virginia); Joe Lewnard (UC-Berkeley)
Selected Publications:
- Brennhofer SA, Platts-Mills JA, Lewnard JA, Liu J, Houpt ER, Rogawski McQuade ET. Antibiotic use attributable to specific aetiologies of diarrhoea in children under 2 years of age in low-resource settings: a secondary analysis of the MAL-ED birth cohort. BMJ Open. 2022 Apr 1;12(4):e058740.
The goal of this project is to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine deployment and inform policies regarding mitigation and control strategies as a vaccine is rolled out. This is accomplished by determining the relative importance of direct and indirect transmission pathways, identifying viral immune escape, gauge its epidemiological consequences, and determine the population-level impact and optimal allocation of a future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.
Funder:
NIH, WHO
Affiliated Faculty:
Ben Lopman, PhD and Katia Koelle, PhD, Juan Leon, PhD
Collaborators:
Alicia Kraay, Andreas Handel
Selected Publications:
- Gallagher ME, Sieben AJ, Nelson KN, Kraay ANM, Orenstein WA, Lopman B, Handel A, Koelle K. Indirect benefits are a crucial consideration when evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates. Nat Med. 2021 Jan;27(1):4-5.
- Kraay ANM, Nelson KN, Zhao CY, Demory D, Weitz JS, Lopman BA. Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control. Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 3;12(1):7063.
- Modeling the use of SARS-COV-2 vaccination to safely relax non-pharmaceutical interventions. Preprint.