Amy Winter and colleagues, in The Lancet Global Health, modelled the probability of achieving measles and rubella elimination between 2018 and 2100 in 93 countries that currently bear the greatest measles and rubella burden. Five independent modelling groups collaborated on this tour-de-force effort to project the annual probability of measles and rubella elimination, conservatively defined in this report as 5 infections per million population, in each country under two different scenarios. The “business as usual” scenario maintained 2017 immunization coverage levels in each country,
continued the current rhythm of periodic supplemental national immunisation campaigns, and stipulated that no additional countries would introduce measles or rubella vaccines. The intensified investment scenario posited that, for each country that had not yet achieved elimination or 95% coverage for both measles and rubella, the unvaccinated population would decline at an annual compound growth rate, such that a country with 20% unvaccinated children in one year would reduce these “zero-dose children” to 19·1% in the next year. To estimate annual numbers of measles and rubella infections, measles deaths, and cases of congenital rubella syndrome in each of the 93 countries, five different models were run through 200 stochastic simulations to the year 2100.
Raghunathan PL, Orenstein W. Investing in global measles and rubella elimination is needed to avert deaths and advance health equity. Lancet Glob Health. 2022 Oct;10(10):e1363-e1364.